INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — Party insiders on Monday said new poll numbers favor the current Indianapolis mayor but give his challenger a narrow path to victory.

In a poll commissioned by WIBC talk show host and former Republican mayoral candidate Abdul-Hakim Shabazz and conducted by the firm ARW Strategies, Democratic incumbent Joe Hogsett led Republcan challenger Jefferson Shreve 47% to 37%, with 16% of voters undecided. Four-hundred likely voters took part on a mix of landlines and cellphone.

Shabazz said he was a little surprised by the number of undecided voters. He said that category has more than enough voters to tip the election in favor of Shreve if he plays his cards right.

The radio talk show host said public safety likely will be the deciding factor. Of the respondents, 44% said public safety was their top priority. Shreve led Hogsett on public safety 39% to 37%, with 25% of voters undecided, though Hogsett led on gun violence by a margin of 40% to 36%.

“That tells me there are a lot of Democrats that are still out there disaffected, or aren’t quite sure whether they’re going to vote for (Hogsett) yet,” Shabazz said.

The talk show host said voters should remember polls are a snapshot in time, and early voting does not begin for another week, but added a similar poll he commissioned at this time four years ago accurately predicted the outcome of Hogsett’s first reelection bid.

Both Democratic and Republican strategists said they were neither surprised nor particularly concerned by the poll’s numbers.

Democratic strategist Lara Beck said Hogsett should maintain his lead as long as he focuses on recent governance issues. “Jefferson Shreve has spent millions of dollars, millions of dollars, to get his name out there, build up his name ID, and he’s still trailing far behind Joe Hogsett,” she said. “That’s not good for him, especially because we’re going into early vote in eight days.”

Republican strategist Whitley Yates said Shreve should flip enough undecided voters to win the election if he focuses on promoting his whole vision for the city, building off of previous announcements involving public safety and downtown. “In looking at what a challenger or campaign would have to do to overcome a D+19, to be a month out from Election Day and to be within 10 points of someone who should be probably leading you by 20 is pretty commendable,” she said. “So whatever he’s doing, I would say keep doing it.”

Early voting begins on Oct. 11 while Election Day itself is Nov. 7.

WISH-TV will air the first live, televised debate of the 2023 mayor’s race at 6 p.m. Oct. 23.

• Demand Answers: Submit your questions for WISH-TV’s Indianapolis Mayoral Debate
• Information on registering to vote in Marion County
• Information on early voting in Marion County

Statements

“Mayor Hogsett is dedicated to making our city safer by successfully reducing violent crime, delivering on a $1.2 billion infrastructure plan to enhance our roads, bridges and sidewalks, and investing in our neighborhoods to foster progress and unity. The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day, and we eagerly anticipate the opportunity to earn the support of our community as Mayor Joe continues to move Indianapolis forward.”

Statement from Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett, a Democrat

“Democrats have a strong partisan advantage in Indianapolis and yet the poll shows Hogsett is under-performing with even his own base. Eight years is enough time to prove yourself and voters see that Hogsett hasn’t gotten the job done. Actions speak louder than election-year promises. Joe Hogsett and his campaign have spent millions running half-truth attack ads demonizing Jefferson Shreve, but the poll shows the ads aren’t working. Voters are hungry for a change.”

Statement from Jefferson Shreve, Republican candidate for Indianapolis mayor