Outside spending in three of Indiana’s congressional races ranks in the nation’s top ten

(INDIANA CAPITAL CHRONICLE) — Outside groups have targeted the state of Indiana with so much money that three federal primary races have landed in the top ten most expensive contests nationwide.

Republicans seeking to win open seats in the U.S. Senate and Congressional Districts 3 and 8 have racked up millions in outside spending. Other open but highly competitive seats — in the 5th and 6th Congressional Districts — haven’t attracted the same interest. 

Total outside spending in the top ten most expensive congressional races: 

• Ohio Senate: $26.6M
• California Senate: $21.2M
• Montana Senate: $9.8M
• West Virginia Senate: $7.6M
• California District 47: $6.3M
• Indiana District 8: $5M
• Utah Senate: $3.9M
• Indiana District 3: $3.8M
• Indiana Senate: $3.6M
• Wisconsin Senate: $3.4M

The rankings come from an Open Secrets compilation of outside spending for primary expenditures, an ever-evolving list updated with new reports from the Federal Election Commission. As of May 1, Indiana’s 8th District — once called the “Bloody Eighth” — ranked sixth in the nation for spending, followed by the 3rd District in eighth and the U.S. Senate race in ninth. The analysis excludes spending in the Presidential primary, which far outpaces spending in down-ballot races. 

Steve Shine, the Allen County Republican Party chair, said the spending in the 3rd Congressional District didn’t surprise him even as the numbers climbed before the May 7th primary, fueled largely by spending from political action committees (PACs) and their powerful brethren, super-PACs. 

“I don’t know if I’m surprised because in any heated election, you kind of expect outside forces to come in and do negative advertising against the people they don’t support,” Shine said. “It’s interesting to note that in the 3rd Congressional District that the candidate spending is much less than the PAC spending … and that’s very telling when you have an outside force come in spending more than the candidates.”

Total outside spending is as follows: $5,069,670 in the 8th District, $3,760,618 in the 3rd District and $3,632,278 in the U.S. Senate race.

Those numbers can’t be combined to reflect total spending because it could double-count certain expenditures, Open Secrets noted. Open Secrets is a nonprofit research group that tracks money in politics. 

That spending includes zero dollars for or against Democratic candidates. 

An uncompetitive race

Perhaps most interestingly, the U.S. Senate race hasn’t had a contested primary since February after egg farmer John Rust lost his candidacy cases before the Indiana Supreme Court and Indiana Election Division. 

There were rumors that former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels would step into the race in 2022 but those were quickly quashed after an attack ad by Club for Growth. That’s left only U.S. Rep. Jim Banks, a Republican, in the race to succeed U.S. Sen. Mike Braun, who is stepping down to run for governor. 

“It’s surprising because it’s, frankly, not competitive,” said Laura Merrifield Wilson, a political science professor at the University of Indianapolis. “Banks has no competition now and even when Rust was on the ballot for a temporary moment, I’m not sure that he was highly competitive and an opponent for Banks.”

Despite Rust’s long-shot campaign throughout 2023, outside groups poured their money into the race and all of the $3.6 million spent was in support of Banks.

Just over $3 million came from the Defend American Jobs super-PAC, a type of political action committee that can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money on their preferred candidates. According to a report from CNBC, the group is one of three funded by cryptocurrency leaders to help candidates in support of crypto, spending a combined $78 million.

Notably, at least half of the $3 million appears to have been spent after Rust left the race when Banks became the only candidate to qualify for the Republican primary ballot.

Two other super-PACs have waded into the U.S. Senate race: the American Leadership PAC and Club for Growth Action. The Club for Growth PAC has also spent funds in support of Banks.

On the national stage, the U.S. Senate has the narrowest of Democratic advantages, with a 51-49 split. Flipping a seat for one party or another would have national ramifications but Indiana is a reliably Republican vote — further adding to the confusion about funding that could be spent elsewhere. 

“It is really shocking to hear that there’s so much money being spent on that,” Merrifield Wilson said. “This is not an election cycle where donors have a lot of money that’s burning in their pockets and they just don’t know where they could possibly spend it … there are a lot of competitive races (nationally). So many things on the ballot for voters but also ways in which donors can make a difference.

“It is highly surprising to see the U.S. Senate race for Indiana ranking in the top ten.”

The most-expensive race in the country is Ohio’s Senate seat held by Democrat Sherrod Brown, which Republicans hope to flip for their party. Over $26 million has flooded into that race, with $16 million spent against Republicans and $9 million spent in support of Republican candidates. 

Reaction in the 3rd, 8th Districts

Brenda Goff, the GOP chair for the 8th Congressional District, said the outside spending figure was eye-catching, but that “you can’t watch TV for a minute without seeing something about one of the candidates, usually negative.”

Goff is also the district director for the seat’s current occupant: Dr. Larry Bucshon. 

“This is the first time for a long time that we’ve had an open primary like this,” she said. 

A total of nine Republican candidates are running for the position along with five Democrats. The two frontrunners appear to be John Hostettler, who held the seat from 1997-2007, and state Sen. Mark Messmer. All of the $5 million spent in that district has been focused on those two candidates. 

After several close campaigns and upheavals through the late 60s and early 80s, the seat earned the moniker “Bloody Eighth.” Finally, in 1984, Democratic Frank McCloskey won the seat by just four votes and held it until 1994 — when he lost it to Hostettler. 

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“I’m bringing that up because I think this one’s going to be very close,” Goff said, who was involved in the 1984 race. “I don’t think this primary’s going to be as close as a four-vote difference … but I think it’s going to be fairly close.”

Shine, over in the 3rd District, said that despite the influx of funds and high-drama races, turnout so far has been low in Allen County, which is the most populous county in the district. 

“There’s numerous races that are very interesting. We have the governor’s race, we have the 3rd District Congressional race and we have at least two very hotly contested county races,” Shine said. “All that being said, my check with the election board yesterday was that voter turnout is almost at a historical low … (Thursday’s) meeting of the election board was canceled because there was not enough to talk about given the low turnout.”

Banks’ pursuit of the Senate seat has left his current position in the 3rd Congressional District empty, drawing the attention of eight Republicans and two Democrats. And while the race has a few wealthy individuals pouring their own funds into their campaigns, outside spending has focused on four Republican candidates: former Allen County Circuit Court Judge Wendy Davis, nonprofit executive Tim Smith, former U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman and State Sen. Andy Zay. 

PAC crossover

Several of the PACs and super-PACs have spent their funds in multiple Indiana races, including the fiscally conservative Club for Growth that supported Banks. The group has consistently been a top funder for Republican candidates and the group’s president David McIntosh is a former Indiana U.S. House member. 

In the 3rd District, outside spending for the organization includes roughly $510,000 against Davis and Smith in a nearly even split. A recent Club for Growth ad against Davis could potentially be the first test of a state law targeting the use of altered media in election ads. 

The House Freedom Action PAC and House Freedom Fund PAC are both affiliated with the far-right House Freedom Caucus. The latter has funded some of the most conservative members of Congress, including Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert, Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs. In Indiana, it has spent $109,000 in support of Stutzman. 

The House Freedom Action PAC has spent $200,000 for Stutzman.

Davis has support from the WFW Action Fund, a hybrid PAC and super-PAC, which has spent $703,000 in support of her candidacy and another $392,000 against Stutzman. The fund has also spent money on former presidential candidate Nikki Haley. 

Also in the 3rd, the Honest Hoosiers PAC is a single-candidate super-PAC supporting Zay and has spent $102,000. 

The “Banks-blessed” American Leadership PAC was formed back when Banks sought a leadership role in the House of Representatives, according to a report from Axios. In addition to the nearly $279,000 it spent in support of Banks, it has paid another $233,000 to support Hostettler in the 8th Congressional District and another $78,000 has been put to use against one of Hostettler’s opponent Messmer. 

Hostletter has encountered pushback from the Republican Jewish Coalition and the United Democracy Project, a super-PAC with ties to the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee. 

The former has spent $955,000 for Messmer while the latter has spent $1.2 million against Hostettler. Another four super-PACs round off the total $5 million in spending: America Leads Action, America’s First Freedoms, Building a Strong American and Protect Freedom. 

American Leads Action has spent $1.5 million against Hostettler and $106,000 in support of Messmer. Both America’s First Freedoms and Building a Strong America spent money in support of Messmer — $420,000 and $49,000, respectively. Building a Strong America has also waded into three other congressional races in Indiana, spending $33,500 in the 6th District for former lawmaker Jefferson Shreve, $20,940 in the 5th District for incumbent U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz and $11,912 in the 3rd District for Zay.

In terms of outside spending, only Protect Freedom PAC spent in favor of Hostettler in the 8th with $482,000. The PAC also spent $383,000 in favor of Stutzman in the 3rd Congressional District.