House Speaker Johnson faces narrowest House majority in nearly 100 years
Clare Foran, Annette Choi, Zachary B. Wolf and Haley Talbot, CNN
Washington (CNN) — Speaker Mike Johnson will face a major challenge in the new Congress – the narrowest House majority in nearly 100 years.
That is, if he can keep the gavel.
Republicans will soon control the House, Senate and White House. But thin margins could imperil President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda. And Johnson has little room for error when the House votes on Friday to elect a speaker for the new Congress.
Republicans won 220 House seats in the November elections, while Democrats won 215, the most narrowly divided House majority since the outset of the Great Depression, almost a century ago.
And the margin is set to quickly shrink even further.
When the House convenes, the partisan breakdown is expected to be 219 to 215 since former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida has said he’s not returning to Congress.
From there, the majority is on track to drop to 217 to 215 with two GOP lawmakers expected to join the Trump administration.
At that point, House Republicans would not be able to afford a single defection to pass legislation along party lines until the vacancies are filled.
With Republicans in control of Washington, there will be intense pressure on GOP leaders to swiftly enact Trump’s agenda.
But the extraordinarily tight margin gives any rank-and-file lawmaker the ability to exert outsized influence by making demands on the speaker.
Johnson has already had to contend with that – frequently in the form of pressure from his right flank, a dynamic that now set to intensify.
Passing a bill in the House requires a majority of all members present and voting. The magic number is 218 if every member shows up to vote and all 435 seats are filled, but that can change if there are vacancies or absences. A tie vote in the House is a fail.
If Republicans aren’t in lockstep, then House GOP leaders will need Democrats to pass legislation.
How the House majority ranks in history
The last time a minority in the House held 215 or more seats was after the 1930 elections, when Republicans won 218 seats, Democrats won 216 and the Farmer-Labor Party won one.
The 72nd Congress — which took place in the early years of the Great Depression era — officially started in March 1931, but did not actually convene to conduct legislative business until months later, in December 1931.
At the official start of that term, in March, the House margin had narrowed even further — to 217 seats for Republicans to 216 for Democrats with one seat for the Farmer-Labor party and one vacancy as a result of the death of one Republican.
In an unusual turn of events, however, the partisan breakdown changed significantly by the time Congress convened when a series of additional deaths and ensuing special elections flipped control of the chamber to Democrats, though the margin remained narrow.
According to House historical records, the 65th Congress had the closest party split in American history, but in that case, the partisan division was so narrow that neither party secured an outright majority in the House based on election results, which left Republicans with 215 seats and Democrats with 214. As a result, a handful of third-party lawmakers played a decisive role when the House convened to elect a speaker.
In addition to Gaetz’s resignation, there are two GOP lawmakers who have been tapped to serve in the Trump administration.
GOP Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida will return as a member of the House at the start of the new Congress, but Trump has tapped him to be his national security adviser, a position that does not require Senate confirmation. To serve in that role, Waltz will resign from the House on January 20, the day of Trump’s inauguration, according to a source familiar with the plans.
The president-elect has also named GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York as his pick for US ambassador to the United Nations, a role that is subject to Senate confirmation. It is not yet clear when a confirmation vote will take place, but Senate Republicans have pledged to hold votes on nominations as soon as possible.
Vacant seats in the House don’t remain vacant forever. Special elections have already been set to fill the Florida congressional seats held by Gaetz and Waltz, but that won’t happen immediately and the seats are expected to remain vacant for several months.
GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana is one more wildcard for the narrow House majority. The congresswoman said in December that she will remain a registered Republican but will not sit on committees or participate in the caucus “until I see that Republican leadership in Congress is governing.”
Speaker election and challenges ahead
Johnson will face an early leadership test when the House votes to elect a speaker at the start of the new Congress.
To be elected speaker, a candidate needs to win a majority of members who vote for a specific person on the House floor.
The election will take place on the first day the new Congress convenes, when the majority is expected to stand at 219 to 215. That would mean that Johnson would only be able to lose a single Republican vote to retain the speakership if every lawmaker votes and all Democrats vote against him, as expected.
So far, at least one Republican has already come out against Johnson’s bid to keep the gavel.
GOP Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky told CNN’s Manu Raju in December that he doesn’t plan on voting for Johnson in the speaker vote.
“He does not have my vote,” Massie said.
Trump endorsed Johnson for the speakership on Monday and told reporters Tuesday that he would call House members “if necessary,” which could help the Louisiana Republican consolidate support. “We’re gonna get a successful vote,” the president-elect said.
But Massie told CNN that Trump’s endorsement does not change his position. There are several other Republicans who have also indicated they remain undecided as to how they will vote.