La Niña fading away this spring

INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — La Niña and El Niño are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can really affect weather and the seasons globally.

In the past three years, there has been a La Niña present. However, heading into spring, forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center are expecting a transition to a neutral phase through the next couple of months.

La Niña itself is the cooler phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern. Stronger trade winds off the South American coast result in colder water and lower moisture content. The ENSO neutral pattern has normal trade winds with near or slightly below-normal water temperatures.

What have the last three ENSO neutral springs looked like in central Indiana?

Overall, there weren’t too many commonalities between these three springs (meteorological spring is from March-May). Two of the three had below-average temperatures. One similar characteristic of each spring was the month of May. All three springs had above-average precipitation in this month. May 2017 finished 2.38 inches above average while May 2020 finished 3.76 inches above average.

CPC probabilities have the neutral phase of ENSO as the highest probability at least into early summer. We will see if there is a chance the El Niño phase returns for next winter.