NOAA releases 2024-25 winter outlook, what to expect for Indiana
INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — La Niña is set to return for winter which has some big implications on Indiana’s outlook for December to February. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has released its 2024-25 winter outlook for the United States.
Remember, this is a climate pattern outlook, not a day-by-day weather forecast. Daily weather forecasts become inaccurate past 10 days.
Precipitation Outlook
In this forecast, all forms of precipitation are covered. This means rainfall and melted-down snow are accounted for in a single category. NOAA is leaning toward above-average precipitation for Indiana and the Great Lakes region from December to February.
This will be a wait-and-see game if that equates to much more snowfall as opposed to rain, but this is a good sign for snow lovers. Indianapolis averages 8.47 inches of precipitation and 22 inches of snow in this timeframe.
La Niña and El Niño are phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation climate pattern. During an El Niño phase, warmer-than-average water temperatures set up off the western South American coastline due to weak trade winds. Strong trade winds in the same region translate to a La Nina with cooler-than-average water temperatures. These swings result in a domino effect that impacts the jet stream.
In a La Niña phase of the ENSO-climate pattern, the polar jet, and subtropical jet stream tend to come together more often in the Midwest. This drags in more moisture to our region which gives us better chances of precipitation.
Temperature Outlook
With the subtropical jet stream being pulled north in a La Niña phase, warmer temperatures are expected in the south. There is a slight signal for above normal temperatures here in Indiana during December to February. Our average temperature from December to February in Indianapolis is 31.5 degrees.
Recent NOAA Predictions
Unlike the Farmers’ Almanac and Old Farmer’s Almanac, NOAA’s predictions have been fairly accurate in recent years. When evaluating NOAA’s forecasts, any time they predicted “equal chances at above average or below average,” the forecast was marked as a non-prediction.
For the past 5 years, NOAA has correctly predicted the precipitation 3 years in a row for Indianapolis. It’s important to note, that above-average precipitation outlooks can still verify even if snowfall was below normal which was the case in 2021-22 and 2022-23 when we also had a La Niña phase.
NOAA hasn’t seen many strong signals with temperatures in recent winters. Over the past 5 years, they have only leaned above average two times (2023-24, 2021-22) with non-predictions the other three winters.
You can always get the latest 7-day forecast by visiting our weather blog here.