Election data suggest shifting political landscape in Indiana

Election data suggest new voting trends

INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — Although Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Braun cruised to easy victories in Indiana, county-level election data suggest future election maps might look different.

News 8 reviewed the results for the elections for both governor and president in all 92 counties. Trump won every county in Indiana except the Democratic strongholds of Marion, Monroe, Lake and St. Joseph counties.

His vote share ranged from 100 votes in Tippecanoe County to 81.5 percent in Franklin County. Braun’s results tracked with Trump’s but consistently ran roughly 4 to 5 percentage points behind.

This led to Tippecanoe County splitting its vote, with Democratic candidate for governor Jennifer McCormick winning by nearly 2,700 votes.

Here are the percentage point results by county for Braun, McCormick, and the name of that county’s winner:

Adams: 69.6%; 24.9%; Braun.
Allen: 53.2%; 42.9% Braun.
Bartholomew: 58.5%; 36.0%; Braun.
Benton: 67.1%; 26.2%; Braun.
Blackford: 61.4%; 27.7%; Braun.
Boone: 53.3%; 41.3%; Braun.
Brown: 55.5%; 33.2%; Braun.
Carroll: 67.1%; 25.8%; Braun.
Cass: 63.4%; 30.1%; Braun.
Clark: 55.4%; 41.3%; Braun.
Clay: 71.0%; 23.0%; Braun.
Clinton: 62.7%; 30.0%; Braun.
Crawford: 65.6%; 30.3%; Braun.
Daviess: 70.1%; 21.3%; Braun.
Dearborn: 76.4%; 20.5%; Braun.
Decatur: 70.8%; 22.0%; Braun.
Dekalb: 67.1%; 27.0%; Braun.
Delaware: 49.9%; 45.7%; Braun.
Dubois: 58.1%; 33.6%; Braun (his home county).
Elkhart: 62.5%; 33.7%; Braun.
Fayette: 71.6%; 23.5%; Braun.
Floyd: 55.2%; 42.5%; Braun.
Fountain: 71.4%; 21.5%; Braun.
Franklin: 77.4%; 19.0%; Braun.
Fulton: 64.3%; 26.7%; Braun.
Gibson: 70.7%; 25.5%; Braun.
Grant: 63.6%; 29.9%; Braun.
Greene: 67.8%; 25.5%; Braun.
Hamilton: 51.2%; 45.7%; Braun.
Hancock: 59.4%; 33.5%; Braun.
Harrison: 68.4%; 28.5%; Braun.
Hendricks: 56.1%; 38.9%; Braun.
Henry: 63.1%; 30.7%; Braun (McCormick’s home county).
Howard: 59.4%; 34.2%; Braun.
Huntington: 66.2%; 27.0%; Braun.
Jackson: 68.8%; 25.8%; Braun.
Jasper: 70.3%; 25.0%; Braun.
Jay: 67.8%; 25.0%; Braun.
Jefferson: 61.5%; 34.9%; Braun.
Jennings: 69.2%; 24.1%; Braun.
Johnson: 61.4%; 33.0%; Braun.
Knox: 68.8%; 26.6%; Braun.
Kosciusko: 68.6%; 23.9%; Braun.
La Porte: 52.3%; 43.7%; Braun.
LaGrange: 71.7%; 23.1%; Braun.
Lake: 44.2%; 53.7%; McCormick.
Lawrence: 66.9%; 25.7%; Braun.
Madisonv 55.9%; 38.3%; Braun.
Marion: 33.6%; 63.0% McCormick.
Marshall: 64.9%; 29.2%; Braun.
Martin: 57.0%; 26.7%; Braun.
Miami: 65.7%; 27.1%; Braun.
Monroe: 34.1%; 62.6%; McCormick.
Montgomery: 65.0%; 26.9%; Braun.
Morgan: 67.2%; 23.9%; Braun.
Newton: 70.7%; 24.5%; Braun.
Noble: 67.7%; 25.6%; Braun.
Ohio: 73.2%; 23.8%; Braun.
Orange: 66.5%; 27.7%; Braun.
Owen: 64.9%; 25.0%; Braun.
Parke: 71.0%; 23.3%; Braun.
Perry: 59.3%; 37.6%; Braun.
Pike: 70.1%; 24.5%; Braun.
Porter: 51.7%; 45.5%; Braun.
Posey: 68.7%; 28.4%; Braun.
Pulaski: 65.7%; 25.6%; Braun.
Putnam: 66.0%; 25.6%; Braun.
Randolph: 67.8%; 26.5%; Braun.
Ripley: 75.0%; 20.4%; Braun.
Rush: 66.9%; 25.9%; Braun.
Scott: 56.9%; 39.7%; Braun.
Shelby: 64.3%; 27.7%; Braun.
Spencer: 66.6%; 29.7%; Braun.
St. Joseph: 47.2%; 49.8%; McCormick.
Starke: 65.5%; 26.0%; Braun.
Steuben: 66.2%; 29.2%; Braun.
Sullivan: 67.0%; 27.1%; Braun.
Switzerland: 72.3%; 24.4%; Braun.
Tippecanoe: 45.5%; 49.7%; McCormick.
Tipton: 66.3%; 26.6%; Braun.
Union: 73.7%; 22.4%; Braun.
Vanderburgh: 54.9%; 42.8%; Braun.
Vermillion: 63.2%; 29.6%; Braun.
Vigo: 53.8%; 42.1%; Braun.
Wabash: 67.9%; 25.1%; Braun.
Warren: 70.1%; 23.3%; Braun.
Warrick: 62.9%; 34.3%; Braun.
Washington: 68.6%; 26.0%; Braun.
Wayne: 60.1%; 35.2%; Braun.
Wells: 72.1%; 21.6%; Braun.
White: 63.6%; 29.0%; Braun.
Whitley: 67.3%; 25.2%; Braun.
Average: 63.5%; 30.7%; Braun.
State total: 54.4%; 41.1%; Braun.

Ball State University political science Prof. Chad Kinsella said Tippecanoe County’s demographics likely played a role. He said the county does have a large number of younger, college-educated voters due to Purdue University but the outlying areas of the county tend to favor Republicans.

He said Tippecanoe County could become Indiana’s premier swing county. Kinsella and IU South Bend political science Prof. Elizabeth Bennion both said they suspect Libertarian candidate Donald Rainwater, who got 4.5 % of the vote statewide, played a role in Braun underperforming Trump.

McCormick slightly over-performed Harris statewide, 41.1% versus 39.5%. Bennion said McCormick likely was able to appeal to some moderate Republican voters but added only a small number of voters are true swing voters.

Although Trump won all of the so-called donut counties that ring Indianapolis, Democrats continued to make substantial gains there. In Hamilton County, Trump took home the second-lowest vote margin of any county he won, with 52.1%, while Vice President Kamala Harris took 46% of the vote.

Harris exceeded Hillary Clinton’s 2016 total in Hamilton County by nearly 10 percentage points, though most of that gain happened between 2016 and 2020. Trump lost about 4 percentage points over the same period.

It was a similar story in Boone County. Although Trump won, his vote share dropped to 56.9%, some 3.5 percentage points below his 2016 share, while Harris received 41%. Hendricks, Hancock and Johnson counties also posted Democratic gains and slight Trump losses from 2016 to 2024, though Trump maintained a far more commanding lead there.

The trend nearly reversed in Lake County. Long a Democratic stronghold, Lake County still went Democratic this year but Harris only won 52.1% of the vote there, down more than four percentage points from Clinton’s 58.4% in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump nabbed 46.4% of Lake County’s votes, well above his 2016 share of 37.7%.

Here are the percentage point results by county for Trump, Harris, and the name of that county’s winner:

Adams: 75.4%; 22.8%; Trump.
Allen: 55.3%; 42.9%; Trump.
Bartholomew: 62.6%; 35.3%; Trump.
Benton: 72.7%; 25.5%; Trump.
Blackford: 74.2%; 23.9%; Trump.
Boone: 56.9%; 41.0%; Trump.
Brown: 65.4%; 32.8%; Trump.
Carroll: 75.2%; 23.1%; Trump.
Cass: 72.4%; 26.2%; Trump.
Clark: 59.3%; 38.9%; Trump.
Clay: 77.6%; 20.7%; Trump.
Clinton: 73.2%; 25.2%; Trump.
Crawford: 73.2%; 24.6%; Trump.
Daviess: 81.4%; 17.1%; Trump.
Dearborn: 78.4%; 20.1%; Trump.
Decatur: 78.4%; 19.9%; Trump.
Dekalbv 72.6%; 25.6%; Trump.
Delaware: 57.0%; 41.2%; Trump.
Dubois: 69.9%; 27.7%; Trump.
Elkhart: 65.7%; 32.9%; Trump.
Fayette: 77.5%; 21.2%; Trump.
Floyd: 56.9%; 41.4%; Trump.
Fountain: 79.1%; 19.1%; Trump.
Franklin: 81.5%; 17.1%; Trump.
Fulton: 74.9%; 23.7%; Trump.
Gibson: 74.8%; 23.4%; Trump.
Grant: 69.9%; 28.1%; Trump.
Greene: 76.1%; 22.3%; Trump.
Hamilton: 52.1%; 46.0%; Trump.
Hancock: 65.9%; 32.2%; Trump.
Harrison: 72.5%; 25.6%; Trump.
Hendricks: 59.9%; 38.4%; Trump.
Henry: 73.0%; 25.3%; Trump.
Howard: 66.6%; 31.6%; Trump.
Huntington: 73.3%; 24.9%; Trump.
Jackson: 76.8%; 21.5%; Trump.
Jasper: 76.3%; 22.0%; Trump.
Jay: 76.7%; 21.6%; Trump.
Jefferson: 67.1%; 31.0%; Trump.
Jennings: 78.5%; 19.7%; Trump.
Johnson: 66.3%; 32.0%; Trump.
Knox: 74.4%; 24.0%; Trump.
Kosciusko: 75.1%; 22.9%; Trump.
La Porte: 56.2%; 41.9%v Trump.
LaGrange: 77.6%; 20.8%; Trump.
Lake: 46.4%; 52.1%; Harris.
Lawrence: 74.6%; 23.6%; Trump.
Madison: 62.5%; 35.6%; Trump.
Marion: 35.1%; 62.6%; Harris.
Marshall: 70.7%; 27.4%; Trump.
Martin: 79.3%; 18.7%; Trump.
Miami: 76.3%; 21.8%; Trump.
Monroe: 35.4%; 62.8%; Harris.
Montgomery: 73.1%; 24.9%; Trump.
Morgan: 76.3%; 22.0%; Trump.
Newton: 77.8%; 20.7%; Trump.
Noble: 74.9%; 23.5%; Trump.
Ohio: 77.0%; 21.5%; Trump.
Orange: 75.2%; 23.1%v Trump.
Owen: 74.6%; 23.7%; Trump.
Parke: 77.5%; 20.6%; Trump.
Perry: 64.0%; 34.3%; Trump.
Pike: 76.7%; 21.9%; Trump.
Porter: 54.3%; 43.8%; Trump.
Posey: 71.0%; 27.5%; Trump.
Pulaskiv 75.8%; 22.2%; Trump.
Putnam: 75.1%; 23.1%; Trump.
Randolph: 75.9%; 22.3%; Trump.
Ripley: 80.1%; 18.6%; Trump.
Rush: 75.9%; 21.9%; Trump.
Scott: 74.9%; 23.4%; Trump.
Shelby: 73.1%; 25.1%; Trump.
Spencer: 70.5%; 27.3%; Trump.
St. Joseph: 48.5%; 50.0%; Harris.
Starke: 75.3%; 23.2%; Trump.
Steuben: 70.2%; 28.1%; Trump.
Sullivan: 75.5%; 22.8%; Trump.
Switzerland: 77.9%; 20.5%; Trump.
Tippecanoe: 48.8%; 48.6%; Trump.
Tipton: 74.5%; 23.7%; Trump.
Union: 77.2%; 21.4%; Trump.
Vanderburgh: 55.6%; 43.0%; Trump.
Vermillion: 71.3%; 26.6%; Trump.
Vigo: 58.1%; 40.0%; Trump.
Wabash: 74.7%; 23.9%; Trump.
Warren: 77.8%; 20.5%; Trump.
Warrick: 64.3%; 34.1%; Trump.
Washington: 76.5%; 21.7%; Trump.
Wayne: 65.3%; 32.9%; Trump.
Wells: 78.0%; 20.2%; Trump.
White: 71.4%; 26.4%; Trump.
Whitley: 74.0%; 24.1%; Trump.
Average: 70.1%; 28.2%; Trump.
State Total: 58.7%; 39.5%; Trump.

Kinsella said those trends mirror patterns that have emerged in other states, with suburbs increasingly leaning Democratic and industrial areas trending Republican even if they are home to significant minority populations.

“There’s just this really interesting upheaval right now and some of it might be the Trump phenomenon, but the parties are evolving and the people who vote for those parties are also evolving,” he said. “The Republican party is making a much better appeal than it ever did to minorities, and particularly minority men.”

Bennion isn’t so sure. She said vote totals in any given election depend in large part on who actually turns out to vote. Bennion said Gary has seen a drop in Black voter turnout. She also said each election has its own unique driving factors.

“This election was very much about the economy, about people’s feelings regarding the economy and it was an election for change,” she said. “Many voters saw Harris as part of the incumbent party. One of the things that we’re seeing there are those people who are persuadable.”

Bennion said it’s too soon to say if the 2024 election results are a sign of a change in which areas support which parties. She said the 2026 and 2028 elections will show if the patterns will be sustained or if they were an anomaly.

For desktop and mobile web viewers, here are the percentage point results by county for Braun, McCormick, and the name of that county’s winner, shown in a tabular format that’s not viewable on the app.

County Braun McCormick Winner
Adams 69.6% 24.9% Braun
Allen 53.2% 42.9% Braun
Bartholomew 58.5% 36.0% Braun
Benton 67.1% 26.2% Braun
Blackford 61.4% 27.7% Braun
Boone 53.3% 41.3% Braun
Brown 55.5% 33.2% Braun
Carroll 67.1% 25.8% Braun
Cass 63.4% 30.1% Braun
Clark 55.4% 41.3% Braun
Clay 71.0% 23.0% Braun
Clinton 62.7% 30.0% Braun
Crawford 65.6% 30.3% Braun
Daviess 70.1% 21.3% Braun
Dearborn 76.4% 20.5% Braun
Decatur 70.8% 22.0% Braun
Dekalb 67.1% 27.0% Braun
Delaware 49.9% 45.7% Braun
Dubois 58.1% 33.6% Braun (Home County)
Elkhart 62.5% 33.7% Braun
Fayette 71.6% 23.5% Braun
Floyd 55.2% 42.5% Braun
Fountain 71.4% 21.5% Braun
Franklin 77.4% 19.0% Braun
Fulton 64.3% 26.7% Braun
Gibson 70.7% 25.5% Braun
Grant 63.6% 29.9% Braun
Greene 67.8% 25.5% Braun
Hamilton 51.2% 45.7% Braun
Hancock 59.4% 33.5% Braun
Harrison 68.4% 28.5% Braun
Hendricks 56.1% 38.9% Braun
Henry 63.1% 30.7% Braun (McCormick Home County)
Howard 59.4% 34.2% Braun
Huntington 66.2% 27.0% Braun
Jackson 68.8% 25.8% Braun
Jasper 70.3% 25.0% Braun
Jay 67.8% 25.0% Braun
Jefferson 61.5% 34.9% Braun
Jennings 69.2% 24.1% Braun
Johnson 61.4% 33.0% Braun
Knox 68.8% 26.6% Braun
Kosciusko 68.6% 23.9% Braun
La Porte 52.3% 43.7% Braun
LaGrange 71.7% 23.1% Braun
Lake 44.2% 53.7% McCormick
Lawrence 66.9% 25.7% Braun
Madison 55.9% 38.3% Braun
Marion 33.6% 63.0% McCormick
Marshall 64.9% 29.2% Braun
Martin 57.0% 26.7% Braun
Miami 65.7% 27.1% Braun
Monroe 34.1% 62.6% McCormick
Montgomery 65.0% 26.9% Braun
Morgan 67.2% 23.9% Braun
Newton 70.7% 24.5% Braun
Noble 67.7% 25.6% Braun
Ohio 73.2% 23.8% Braun
Orange 66.5% 27.7% Braun
Owen 64.9% 25.0% Braun
Parke 71.0% 23.3% Braun
Perry 59.3% 37.6% Braun
Pike 70.1% 24.5% Braun
Porter 51.7% 45.5% Braun
Posey 68.7% 28.4% Braun
Pulaski 65.7% 25.6% Braun
Putnam 66.0% 25.6% Braun
Randolph 67.8% 26.5% Braun
Ripley 75.0% 20.4% Braun
Rush 66.9% 25.9% Braun
Scott 56.9% 39.7% Braun
Shelby 64.3% 27.7% Braun
Spencer 66.6% 29.7% Braun
St. Joseph 47.2% 49.8% McCormick
Starke 65.5% 26.0% Braun
Steuben 66.2% 29.2% Braun
Sullivan 67.0% 27.1% Braun
Switzerland 72.3% 24.4% Braun
Tippecanoe 45.5% 49.7% McCormick
Tipton 66.3% 26.6% Braun
Union 73.7% 22.4% Braun
Vanderburgh 54.9% 42.8% Braun
Vermillion 63.2% 29.6% Braun
Vigo 53.8% 42.1% Braun
Wabash 67.9% 25.1% Braun
Warren 70.1% 23.3% Braun
Warrick 62.9% 34.3% Braun
Washington 68.6% 26.0% Braun
Wayne 60.1% 35.2% Braun
Wells 72.1% 21.6% Braun
White 63.6% 29.0% Braun
Whitley 67.3% 25.2% Braun
Average 63.5% 30.7% Braun
State total 54.4% 41.1% Braun

For desktop and mobile web viewers, here are the percentage point results by county for Trump, Harris, and the name of that county’s winner, shown in a tabular format that’s not viewable on the app.

County Trump Harris Winner
Adams 75.4% 22.8% Trump
Allen 55.3% 42.9% Trump
Bartholomew 62.6% 35.3% Trump
Benton 72.7% 25.5% Trump
Blackford 74.2% 23.9% Trump
Boone 56.9% 41.0% Trump
Brown 65.4% 32.8% Trump
Carroll 75.2% 23.1% Trump
Cass 72.4% 26.2% Trump
Clark 59.3% 38.9% Trump
Clay 77.6% 20.7% Trump
Clinton 73.2% 25.2% Trump
Crawford 73.2% 24.6% Trump
Daviess 81.4% 17.1% Trump
Dearborn 78.4% 20.1% Trump
Decatur 78.4% 19.9% Trump
Dekalb 72.6% 25.6% Trump
Delaware 57.0% 41.2% Trump
Dubois 69.9% 27.7% Trump
Elkhart 65.7% 32.9% Trump
Fayette 77.5% 21.2% Trump
Floyd 56.9% 41.4% Trump
Fountain 79.1% 19.1% Trump
Franklin 81.5% 17.1% Trump
Fulton 74.9% 23.7% Trump
Gibson 74.8% 23.4% Trump
Grant 69.9% 28.1% Trump
Greene 76.1% 22.3% Trump
Hamilton 52.1% 46.0% Trump
Hancock 65.9% 32.2% Trump
Harrison 72.5% 25.6% Trump
Hendricks 59.9% 38.4% Trump
Henry 73.0% 25.3% Trump
Howard 66.6% 31.6% Trump
Huntington 73.3% 24.9% Trump
Jackson 76.8% 21.5% Trump
Jasper 76.3% 22.0% Trump
Jay 76.7% 21.6% Trump
Jefferson 67.1% 31.0% Trump
Jennings 78.5% 19.7% Trump
Johnson 66.3% 32.0% Trump
Knox 74.4% 24.0% Trump
Kosciusko 75.1% 22.9% Trump
La Porte 56.2% 41.9% Trump
LaGrange 77.6% 20.8% Trump
Lake 46.4% 52.1% Harris
Lawrence 74.6% 23.6% Trump
Madison 62.5% 35.6% Trump
Marion 35.1% 62.6% Harris
Marshall 70.7% 27.4% Trump
Martin 79.3% 18.7% Trump
Miami 76.3% 21.8% Trump
Monroe 35.4% 62.8% Harris
Montgomery 73.1% 24.9% Trump
Morgan 76.3% 22.0% Trump
Newton 77.8% 20.7% Trump
Noble 74.9% 23.5% Trump
Ohio 77.0% 21.5% Trump
Orange 75.2% 23.1% Trump
Owen 74.6% 23.7% Trump
Parke 77.5% 20.6% Trump
Perry 64.0% 34.3% Trump
Pike 76.7% 21.9% Trump
Porter 54.3% 43.8% Trump
Posey 71.0% 27.5% Trump
Pulaski 75.8% 22.2% Trump
Putnam 75.1% 23.1% Trump
Randolph 75.9% 22.3% Trump
Ripley 80.1% 18.6% Trump
Rush 75.9% 21.9% Trump
Scott 74.9% 23.4% Trump
Shelby 73.1% 25.1% Trump
Spencer 70.5% 27.3% Trump
St. Joseph 48.5% 50.0% Harris
Starke 75.3% 23.2% Trump
Steuben 70.2% 28.1% Trump
Sullivan 75.5% 22.8% Trump
Switzerland 77.9% 20.5% Trump
Tippecanoe 48.8% 48.6% Trump
Tipton 74.5% 23.7% Trump
Union 77.2% 21.4% Trump
Vanderburgh 55.6% 43.0% Trump
Vermillion 71.3% 26.6% Trump
Vigo 58.1% 40.0% Trump
Wabash 74.7% 23.9% Trump
Warren 77.8% 20.5% Trump
Warrick 64.3% 34.1% Trump
Washington 76.5% 21.7% Trump
Wayne 65.3% 32.9% Trump
Wells 78.0% 20.2% Trump
White 71.4% 26.4% Trump
Whitley 74.0% 24.1% Trump
Average 70.1% 28.2% Trump
State Total 58.7% 39.5% Trump