National pollster moves Indiana secretary of state race to toss-up
INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — An analyst with a major national pollster said suburban Republicans might prove crucial in a key statewide race.
On Friday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a publication of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, moved the Indiana Secretary of State race to the toss-up category, calling the move “something of a surprise.” The editors cited the multiple controversies surrounding Republican candidate Diego Morales, including allegations of sexual misconduct, improper use of campaign funds and 2020 election denial. Morales has denied those charges and told News 8 in a recent interview he believes Joe Biden was legitimately elected president.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman said the election will be a test of the GOP’s 2020 stolen election rhetoric. He said he’s not sure how well that will play with college-educated voters in places such as Hamilton County who have supported Republicans in the past.
“I’m not sure it will be enough to give the race to the Democrat just because Indiana is such a Republican state, but I can see a decent amount of people splitting their ticket,” he said.
Meanwhile, Democratic Congressman Frank Mrvan remains in a tossup with Republican Jennifer-Ruth Green in his bid for another term. Coleman said Green’s results on Election Night will be a useful predictor of Republicans’ final gains. He said a clear win by Mrvan would signal limited Republican gains, a narrow win would indicate a good night for Republicans and an upset by Green would herald significant Republican House majorities. Coleman noted every House seat the Republican Party flipped in 2020 was won by a candidate who was either female or a person of color. Green, who is Black, checks both boxes.
On Wednesday, President Joe Biden attacked the spread of election-denying candidates for public office, saying, “American democracy is under attack because the defeated former president refuses to accept the will of the people.” Coleman said both sides appear to care about threats to democracy but view the issue very differently. He said while Democrats might associate the phrase with former President Donald Trump and the attack on the U.S. Capitol, Republicans might take it to mean voter fraud.
Some polls have shown Todd Young’s bid for reelection ending with a closer-than-expected vote. Coleman said that likely has less to do with Democratic candidate Tom McDermott and more to do with lukewarm Republican sentiment toward Young. Still, he said he wouldn’t be surprised if Young overperforms on Tuesday.
“Todd Young doesn’t seem like the Trumpiest type of senator. He’s basically a mainstream Republican,” he said. “I really wonder how many Hoosiers who are very strong Trump supporters wonder if maybe they’re not going to vote for him but, when push comes to shove, they go and vote for the Republican.”
Coleman said whatever happens on Election Night likely won’t be a good predictor for 2024. He pointed to President Barack Obama’s solid performance in the 2012 election following massive Republican gains in 2010, an election Obama referred to at the time as “a shellacking.” He said the most likely issues to carry over from 2022 into 2024 are inflation and abortion.
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