Old Farmer’s Almanac releases 2024-25 winter outlook – how accurate is it?

INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — Earlier in August, the Farmers’ Almanac revealed its winter forecast, calling for a “cold, wet and white” Indiana winter.

Now their rival, the Old Farmer’s Almanac, has released its winter outlook for 2024-2025:

Indianapolis and north of I-70 are in a “cold, dry” forecast while the southern half of Indiana is in the “cold, snowy” forecast. Overall, the country is headlined by a “calmer, gentler winter” by other Almanac. Outside of the Midwest, most spots are expected to be above average with temperatures.

There are some differences between each Almanac.

The winter predictions from the Old Farmer’s Almanac run from November to March while the Farmers’ Almanac outlook runs from December to March. Meteorological winter is December to February, which is the timeframe the Climate Prediction Center forecasts.

How accurate have previous predictions been?

Any winter in Indiana could be considered cold and snowy at some point. If we take a “cold, snowy” prediction to mean colder and snowier than average literally, we can get an idea of their forecast performance. Winter outlooks from the Old Farmer’s Almanac have been less than stellar the last two years.

In the last five years, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has gotten 4 of 10 temperature and prediction forecasts correct for Indianapolis. They nailed the winter 2019-20 prediction, where our area was mild with above-average precipitation.

Each Almanac claims to be 80% accurate. However, the Farmers’ Almanac also went 0 for 10 in predictions on temperatures and precipitation for Indy in the last five years.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center releases its December to February later this fall. With most meteorologists, this is the accurate outlook we rely on.