INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — Spring is knocking on Indiana’s doorstep.

The state is coming off a winter where temperatures finished well above average with precipitation just below normal.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation plays a huge role on the jet stream pattern through the United States. El Niño is when warmer temperatures set up in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and La Niña is the opposite.

El Niño is fading, and La Niña will likely arrive later this year. How will this have a role on our spring forecast in Indiana?

Sam Lashley is the warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service office in Indianapolis. He says, “Coming out of a strong El Niño, it’s all over the place looking back at previous years. Right now, we think we are going to trend like we have been … where we are a little above average for temperatures. But precipitation, we may trend a little wetter than normal, we will get into a more active pattern.”

Because of the transition from El Niño to La Niña, confidence is not as high with the numbers we will put up locally. Indianapolis averages just under 13 inches of precipitation from March to May. Our average temperature tends to be around 53 degrees.

Tornadoes

April, May, and June have been traditional months where tornado activity increases in our area. However, Indiana is one of those states where you could still see a tornado for most months in any year. On average Indiana sees about 25-26 tornadoes in the state in a year. We blew way over this number in 2023 with 54 total tornadoes.

Severe weather in 2023 was highlighted by the March 31 outbreak that produced 23 tornadoes.

Is there any chance we could be eyeing another active severe season in 2024?

Lashley responds, “There is always a chance, right? That’s what everyone says. There is some research that has been done, it’s not a big correlation, but it actually indicates for Indiana, normal to slightly below-normal number of tornadoes for the state.”

Like always with severe weather, all it takes is one strong system to produce a tornado outbreak. Be vigilant and have a safety plan in place.

As the spring forecast evolves, stay up to date on the forecast on the Storm Track 8 weather blog.