INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center released its spring 2024 outlook which includes the months of March, April, and May. These months are considered meteorological spring despite our official start to spring on March 19 aka the spring equinox.

Temperature

Indianapolis has an average temperature from March to May of 53.2 degrees. The last four springs have all gone over this number.

This outlook favors above-average temperatures, not only for Indiana, but much of the northern part of the country.

Precipitation

Remember, precipitation includes rain and melted snow. Even though these months don’t typically see a lot of snowfall in central Indiana, it is still accounted for.

From 1991-2020, the average precipitation total was 12.78 inches from March to May. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored in Indiana, but there is a stronger signal in the southeast.

Factors of the outlook

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern that involves the changes in the water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This has a domino effect on the entire globe.

During an El Niño phase, warm temperatures set up off the western South American coastline. La Niña is the opposite, with cooler-than-average water temperatures in the same region.

El Niño conditions are still in play for the time being. However, by April-June, the CPC says there is a 79% chance of transitioning to a neutral stage of ENSO.

During an El Niño, subtropical jet tends to bring above-average moisture to the south. Meanwhile, Indiana and most of the Midwest usually have drier conditions set up. With the change to a neutral pattern in a few months, our moisture feed will give us better opportunities at above-average rainfall.

Beyond the spring 2024 outlook, not only is the pattern expected to go back to neutral, but we could see the return of La Niña by summer. There is a 55% chance La Niña developing in June-August, according to the CPC.

Check our latest 8-day forecast by visiting our weather blog here.