INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — Not to be confused with the Old Farmer’s Almanac, the Farmers’ Almanac has been releasing outlooks since 1818. The latest winter outlook stretches from December to March even though meteorological winter is December to February.

Here is the Farmers’ Almanac forecast for the 2024-2025 winter season:

Headlined by a “wet, winter, whirlwind”, this forecast is calling for a cold, wet, and white winter for Indiana and a good chunk of the Midwest.

Can we trust the predictions?

“Not so much” would be the short answer for Indianapolis. For example, if you take the 2022-23 prediction of “unreasonably cold, snowy” to mean colder and snowier than average these predictions have been off the mark recently.

In the last 5 years, the Farmers’ Almanac has failed to get the temperature or precipitation forecast right for Indy. Remarkably, that is zero out of 10 predictions correct. Not to mention, this Alamanc continues to show similar qualities every year for the Midwest with some wording that indicates a cold and above-average snowy winter.

Returning La Niña

One of the main factors for this winter will be the emergence of La Niña. Last winter, El Niño was firmly in place, which typically means a mort northward polar jet. La Niña years tend to have that polar jet further south which increases the chance of precipitation.

Of course, it is too soon to indicate how strong the La Niña will be this winter which is the reason to hold off on any winter forecasts for accuracy. Even with a La Niña in place, this doesn’t fully guarantee above-average snowfall. 3 of our last 4 winters were in the La Niña stage and finished with below-average snow in Indianapolis.

Later this month, the Old Farmer’s Almanac will release their winter forest. The Climate Prediction Center outlook will be released a few months later, which is considered the most accurate of the 3.

You can find the latest winter predictions for the coming months by visiting our weather stories page here.